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Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity

Vasileios Drosos, Amalia Giannakou, Jacob Chacko, and Panagiota Tasiopoulou have co-authored a technical paper titled "Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity" with Ruben Jongejan of Jongejan Risk Management Consulting B.V., NellekeZuideveld‑Venema of WaterschapNoorderzijlvest, Sjoerd de Wit of Shell Global Solutions International B.V., and Hans Huissoon of Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0521-7

Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A

method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees

that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability

Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number

of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates.

To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section

along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be

used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors,

and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in

earthquake prone regions.

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